Identification of dynamic variables capturing interannual behavior of ENSO based on ocean heat content data

Dmitry N. Mukhin; Aleksei F. Seleznev; Andrey S. Gavrilov

doi:10.1117/12.2690490

17 October 2023 Identification of dynamic variables capturing interannual behavior of ENSO based on ocean heat content data

Dmitry N. Mukhin, Aleksei F. Seleznev, Andrey S. Gavrilov

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 12780, 29th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics; 127805Q (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2690490
Event: XXIX International Symposium "Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics", 2023, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract

The phase variables describing the interannual variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reconstructed from the tropical Pacific ocean heat content data, and an optimal non-linear stochastic model of the evolution of these variables is constructed in the form of a discrete map. It is shown that a significant ENSO atmospheric predictor localized in the Northern Hemisphere correlates with oceanic predictors constructed using this model. In addition, atmospheric anomalies is found that correlate with the residual part of the ENSO, which is not described by the indicated oceanic variables.

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Dmitry N. Mukhin, Aleksei F. Seleznev, and Andrey S. Gavrilov "Identification of dynamic variables capturing interannual behavior of ENSO based on ocean heat content data", Proc. SPIE 12780, 29th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 127805Q (17 October 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2690490

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