Risk assessment of immersed tube tunnel engineering based on Bayesian method

Jiao Zhang; Ge Kong; An Ping Chen; Yun Zhang

doi:10.1117/12.3024760

14 February 2024 Risk assessment of immersed tube tunnel engineering based on Bayesian method

Jiao Zhang, Ge Kong, An Ping Chen, Yun Zhang

Proceedings Volume 13018, International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering (STCE 2023); 1301835 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3024760
Event: International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering (STCE 2023), 2023, Chongqing, China

Abstract

This paper carried out risk assessment of the immersed tube tunnel engineering using the Bayesian networks. Firstly, based on expert survey data and records of construction risks in immersed tube tunnel engineering the fault tree is transformed into a systematic Bayesian network. Next, leveraging the computational advantages of the Bayesian method, the probability of occurrence of risk events in the immersed tube tunnel is linearly inferred, identifying the risk factors that require particular attention. Finally, it is proposed that when any non-root node event fails in the Bayesian network, the root node events should be controlled in order of decreasing posterior probability. This control method clarifies the approximate scope and quantity of key control targets, to some extent, conserving limited human, material, and financial resources. The evaluation results can provide a scientific basis for the subsequent risk control.

(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Citation Download Citation

Jiao Zhang, Ge Kong, An Ping Chen, and Yun Zhang "Risk assessment of immersed tube tunnel engineering based on Bayesian method", Proc. SPIE 13018, International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering (STCE 2023), 1301835 (14 February 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3024760

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