Climatic variability forecast based on feedback relations

S. V. Morozova; K. E. Denisov; E. A. Polyanskaya; M. Yu. Chervyakov; S. I. Pryakhina; E. I. Ormeli

doi:10.1117/12.2603727

15 December 2021 Climatic variability forecast based on feedback relations

S. V. Morozova, K. E. Denisov, E. A. Polyanskaya, M. Yu. Chervyakov, S. I. Pryakhina, E. I. Ormeli

Proceedings Volume 11916, 27th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics; 119166Y (2021) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2603727
Event: 27th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics, 2021, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract

The article examines the dynamics of the planetary altitudinal frontal zone in two natural climatic periods of the state of the Earth's climatic system - the stabilization period and the second wave of global warming. A change in the area and intensity of the planetary altitudinal frontal zone in different climatic periods was found out. From the period of stabilization to the second wave of global warming, the area of planetary altitudinal frontal zone expands and its intensity decreases. The climatic change in the area of planetary altitudinal frontal zone is opposite to the seasonal dynamics of its characteristics. Climate change in intensity is similar to seasonal change. The mechanism of action of negative feedback air temperature (dynamics of the planetary high-altitude frontal zone) is described. For the first time, negative feedback has been applied to predict climatic variability at finite time scales.

Citation Download Citation

S. V. Morozova, K. E. Denisov, E. A. Polyanskaya, M. Yu. Chervyakov, S. I. Pryakhina, and E. I. Ormeli "Climatic variability forecast based on feedback relations", Proc. SPIE 11916, 27th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics, 119166Y (15 December 2021); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2603727

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