Preliminary parametric cost model for x-ray grazing incidence optics for space flight

Nathan J. Snyder; H. Philip Stahl; Jessica A. Gaskin; Courtney L. Perez; Robbie J. Holcombe

doi:10.1117/12.3021637

23 August 2024 Preliminary parametric cost model for x-ray grazing incidence optics for space flight

Nathan J. Snyder, H. Philip Stahl, Jessica A. Gaskin, Courtney L. Perez, Robbie J. Holcombe

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 13099, Modeling, Systems Engineering, and Project Management for Astronomy XI; 1309923 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3021637
Event: SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation, 2024, Yokohama, Japan

Conference Poster

Abstract

Parametric cost models offer a lot of utility in planning and comparing different missions and concepts. Furthermore, they have a significant advantage over other estimating methodologies as they can be quickly and easily replicated. The cost model presented in this paper focuses on estimating the most likely cost for the X-ray Mirror Assembly (XMA) of space-based X-ray telescopes with grazing incidence optics. The authors recognize the complexities of generating a single cost model that covers multiple fabrication techniques, so they have limited this preliminary study to techniques used on previous and current missions, such as direct polished glass full shell, replicated, and foil optics. Pulling from the database developed for this study, the following 2-parameter model was created: XMA$ (FY23) = $0.35M × A ^{(−𝟏.𝟎𝟓)} × P ^{𝟏.𝟎𝟕} For this model, A is the angular resolution measured in arcsec half-power diameter (HPD) and P is the projected area of the mirror module measured in cm². This model explains 98% (adjusted R squared) of the cost variation between 6 space-based X-ray telescope assemblies that used or are currently using grazing incidence optics. The parameters chosen for this model center around polishing cost, which is the largest contributor to XMA cost. More specifically, the angular resolution depends on the polishing quality, and the projected area depends on the total polished area. Future analyses will gauge the impact of incorporating similar suborbital (balloon-borne and sounding rocket) telescopes into the database in addition to telescopes utilizing other types of optics and optics fabrication techniques.

Citation Download Citation

Nathan J. Snyder, H. Philip Stahl, Jessica A. Gaskin, Courtney L. Perez, and Robbie J. Holcombe "Preliminary parametric cost model for x-ray grazing incidence optics for space flight", Proc. SPIE 13099, Modeling, Systems Engineering, and Project Management for Astronomy XI, 1309923 (23 August 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3021637

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