2.1

Indicator sources

The existing relevant indicators are the basis of constructing the power grid investment performance evaluation index system. The indicators of study are mainly from four aspects: National or industry strategic objectives, external supervision and assessment indicator system, internal management indicator system of State Grid Corporation, and other industry-related indicator system. In terms of national or industry strategic goals, this study takes strategic goals, international leading strategies and energy Internet system as indicator sources. In terms of external supervision and assessment index system. In terms of the internal management indicator system of State Grid Corporation of China, the 14th Five Year Development Plan indicator system of State Grid Corporation of China, high-quality development evaluation of State Grid Corporation of China, and diagnostic analysis of power grid development in a certain province of State Grid Corporation of China are adopted in other industry-related systems, through research and literature search, a total of more than 10 investment performance evaluation reports of government, power generation, petroleum, chemical, railway and other industries were selected, and initial indicators were extracted from them.

2.2

Construction of index system

As a central enterprise related to national economy and people’s livelihood, power grid enterprises undertake the “three major responsibilities” of political responsibility, social responsibility, and economic responsibility. As power grid investment is one of the core business of power grid enterprises, the investment decision-making process must take the “three guarantees” principle into account, that is, to adhere to scientific investment, steady investment, precise investment, the limited funds to ensure policy, security, and growth. Therefore, starting from the three dimensions of sociality, technology and economy, this study integrated the extracted initial indicators to build a provincial and municipal power grid investment performance evaluation index system, and finally extracted 3 first-level indicators, 8 second-level indicators and 12 third-level indicators, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

The index system for investment performance evaluation of cities in a province.

3.1

Index weight design

3.2

Index scoring criteria

The score of each index of the evaluation system is composed of the basic score and the growth score, and the total score of each indicator is not more than 100 points. Taking into account the situation that the higher the status quo, the more difficult it is for the business entity to make progress, a stepped-up evaluation criterion for the progress and regression of the indicators is adopted. The basic score is determined by three methods: industry standard method, benchmarking method and operation budget law. The growth score needs to be set according to the characteristics of each index. Considering that the degree of difficulty of year-on-year change of different indicators is not the same, differentiated evaluation criteria for progress and regression of indicators are formulated.

3.3

Comprehensive evaluation

In order to comprehensively evaluate and evaluate the investment performance of power grid enterprises, a linear weighting model is adopted to summarize the score and weight of each index step by step, and the comprehensive score value is calculated. The model can reflect the importance and actual performance of each index, and provide an effective basis for the investment performance evaluation of power grid enterprises. The calculation steps are as follows:

First, according to the index scores and weights of the three indexes in the index system, the scores of the two indexes are calculated as follows:

where, y₂ is the score of secondary indicators, x_3j is the score of corresponding tertiary indicators, w_3j is the weight coefficient of tertiary indicators, and h is the number of tertiary indicators corresponding to secondary indicators.

Then, the score of each index of the first-level index in the index system is calculated:

where, y₁ is the score of the first-level indicator, x_2j is the score of the corresponding second-level indicator, w_2j is the weight coefficient of the second-level indicator, and n is the number of second-level indicators corresponding to the first-level indicator.

Finally, the system comprehensive score of the index system is:

where, y₀ is the comprehensive score of the system, x_1j is the score of each indicator of the first-level indicator layer, w_1jis the weight coefficient of each indicator of the first-level indicator layer, and m is the number of indicators of the first-level indicator layer.

4.1

Investment planning portfolio scheme construction

According to the evaluation results of the three types of index systems of investment performance evaluation of all cities in a certain province, the investment planning portfolio model is constructed to ensure that the power grid investment meets the needs of social electricity consumption and high-quality and sustainable development. The investment planning portfolio is based on three dimensions of sociality, technology and economy, and forms eight models according to the score results of the first-level index of investment performance evaluation, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2.

The dimension and combination mode of investment performance evaluation.

According to the score of power grid investment performance evaluation, the eight mode classification can comprehensively reflect the investment status quo, investment focus and investment control ability of each city, and can accurately reveal the shortcomings of the power grid investment of the city. The comprehensive evaluation of these models has a good linkage effect with the decomposition of the next investment planning, and can guide the investment control direction of various cities during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Models A to H can be mapped to the dimensions of investment capacity and investment demand, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3.

Demand-capability bubble charts of the portfolio’s eight models.

4.2

Investment planning strategy matrix

There are some differences in power grid investment planning among different regions, which is closely related to the development level and investment management level of different cities. Through the analysis and induction of the evaluation of investment performance in different regions, according to different scores and actual operational needs, the investment capability and investment demand strategy matrix is constructed based on the “demand-capability” bubble chart of eight modes of investment portfolio, and the precision investment planning strategy under four quadrants is proposed, as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4.

Investment strategy matrix based on investment performance evaluation results.

Strategy 1: Stable-Growth Type

This strategy works for both pattern B and pattern F.

The social and economic index scores of model B are higher, while the technical index scores are lower, which indicates that the city has made a great contribution to the implementation of major policies or low-carbon green investment. At the same time, the investment capacity level of the power grid, the index of increased electricity sales per unit of investment and increased supply load per unit of investment are higher, and the economic benefits are outstanding. In the future power grid investment planning, in addition to continuing to promote the grid-connected work of clean energy and the implementation of major policy investment, it is also necessary to increase the investment in power grid security, power supply quality and operational efficiency, improve quality and reduce losses, and avoid entering the extensive development path.

Model F has a higher economic index score and a lower technical and social index score, indicating that the city is accompanied by urban development, and the power grid investment is larger, and the power demand of industrial parks and large industrial and mining enterprises is also increasing, and the economic index score is higher, but the customer service or clean energy and the implementation of major decision-making investment need to be further improved. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, it is necessary to continue to promote the access of new energy power grids, promote the application of energy-saving equipment, and build a more intelligent clean energy system. At the same time, it is necessary to increase the replacement and transformation of old lines and equipment, expand the capacity of high-load transformers and lines or transfer the load, optimize the grid structure, improve the reliability of power supply and reduce losses, in order to improve the capacity of power supply equipment.

Strategy 2: High-Benefits Type

This strategy applies to Model A and Model E.

The scores of model A’s three indexes are all higher than the provincial average level, the power grid construction and development level is higher, the completion of various indicators is better, and the power grid investment management and control ability is outstanding. In the further power grid investment planning, the management concept of precision investment and high-quality development should continue to be upheld, and economic investment should be given priority.

Mode E has a high score in economic and technical indicators and a low score in social indicators, indicating that the city has invested more in economic growth and power grid security development and achieved remarkable results, but has not completed a high degree of investment in customer service, social responsibility and low-carbon green. For such cities, the provincial power grid investment planning should require it to ensure economic growth and technical efficiency on the basis of appropriate policy investment inclined, under the premise of stable development to assume more social responsibility, the implementation of major policy special investment, bear more new energy consumption indicators.

Strategy 3: Slow-Improved Type

This strategy works for pattern C and Pattern G.

The social and technical index scores of model C are higher, while the economic index scores are lower. This indicates that the city has a high proportion in customer service, implementation of major policies, low-carbon green investment, and a good management level in eliminating equipment defects, consolidating essential power supply security, strict operation and maintenance control, etc. However, affected by external factors, the growth rate of electricity has slowed down, and the increase of electricity sold per unit investment and the increase of supply load per unit investment are low. During the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” period, all units selling electricity should be urged to tap the potential to increase efficiency, and strictly implement the investment plan and milestone plan, and strive to start the project on schedule, put into production, settlement, and generate electricity and income as soon as possible.

Model G technical index score is high, social, economic index score is low, indicating that the city power grid operation status is stable, load density is small, but subject to the natural environment, regional conditions are poor, the overall economic development level is lower than the provincial average level, the implementation of major policy investment, clean energy investment is relatively less, the overall profitability is not ideal. It is necessary to strengthen the control of investment plans, enhance market competitiveness, and establish an efficiency-oriented and efficient operation of power grid assets system.

Strategy 4: Policy-Support Type

This strategy applies to mode D and Mode H.

Model D has a high score in social indicators and a low score in economic and technical indicators, which indicates that these cities have performed well in social responsibility, so they should receive more policy support in provincial power grid investment planning. In addition, they should also be encouraged to pay more attention to improving the safety of power grid structure, improve operational efficiency and efficiency, so as to increase the evaluation scores of technical and economic indicators, and help the safety of enterprise power grid operation and the growth of enterprise benefit.

In mode H, social, technical and economic index scores are relatively low. These areas may belong to the economically backward or just started regions of the province. In this case, priority should be given to the development of technical indicators, and investment planning should be tilted towards ensuring the reliability of power supply and the safety of the grid structure. When the goal of ensuring the safety of the power grid is achieved, the special poverty alleviation investment and the investment in the transformation of the rural power grid should be moderately increased to improve the score value of the social index and slowly improve the level of investment performance.

4.3

Decomposition plan of investment scale

Based on the above analysis results, the investment scale decomposition plan based on the investment performance evaluation results is constructed. The main contents and steps are as follows:

5.1

Case background

A province is an important comprehensive energy base in China and an important hub of “west-to-east power transmission”. It is in the primary position of the national strategy of western development. It is in a period of both innovation-driven and investment-driven development. The superimposed effect of major strategies such as jointly building the “The Belt and Road Initiative”, promoting the western development in the new era, and ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin is accelerating. In 2022, the annual gross domestic product and social electricity consumption of 11 prefectures and municipalities in the province are shown in Table 2.

Table 2.

Total output value and social power consumption of cities in a province.

5.2

Solution of the performance evaluation model of power grid investment

This article collects the relevant data of 11 municipal power supply companies in a province from 2018 to 2022, and calculates the basic score, growth score and comprehensive score of each index according to the index scoring standard. After statistical analysis, the grid investment performance scoring results of 11 municipal power supply companies are shown in Table 3.

Table 3.

Grid investment performance score of cities in a province.

5.3

Application of power grid investment performance evaluation results in a province

According to the ranking of social indicators, technical indicators and economic indicators of 11 cities in a certain province, the corresponding investment mode of each city is obtained, as shown in Table 4. It can be seen that S10 and S9 correspond to mode A, S2 correspond to mode B, S3 correspond to mode C, S4 correspond to mode D, S6 correspond to mode E, S1 correspond to mode F, S5 correspond to mode G, and S7, S8 and S11 correspond to mode H. Corresponding to the investment strategy, the economic indicators of S2 and S1 are outstanding and the profitability of the enterprise is high, but the technical indicators are poor. It is necessary to take advantage of the strong investment ability to further promote the development and upgrading of the power grid, which is a stable growth type. S10, S9 and S6 are characterized by high technical and economic indexes and high efficiency; S5, S3 technical index score is high, economic index score is low, indicating that the city’s power grid operation status is stable, the load density is small, but subject to the natural environment, regional conditions are poor, the overall economic development level is lower than the provincial average level, for slow improvement; S4, S7, S8, S11 four cities technical index, economic index score is low, indicating that their investment demand is large, but the investment capacity needs to be improved, for policy support.

Table 4.

Three kinds of indicators and comprehensive ranking of cities in a province.

In addition, the increase or decrease of investment allocation in the next year can be deduced by combining the scores of the current power grid investment performance evaluation of companies in various cities in a certain province, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5.

Investment situation of three kinds of indicators in cities of one province in the next year.