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20 December 2024 Connectivity reliability assessment for maritime nodes: a novel D-vine copula-based approach
Shuang Wang, Yan Wang, Hui Ye
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Proceedings Volume 13421, Eighth International Conference on Traffic Engineering and Transportation System (ICTETS 2024); 134211S (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3054711
Event: Eighth International Conference on Traffic Engineering and Transportation System (ICTETS 2024), 2024, Dalian, China
Abstract
The connectivity reliability (CR) of maritime nodes reflects their transportation risk and plays a critical role in international trade transportation. In order to evaluate the CR of maritime nodes under the influence of various interrelated factors, we employ the D-vine copula to model the joint probability distribution of the interrelated factors. By incorporating the conditional probability of these factors, the overall CR is subsequently evaluated. The Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el Mandeb are utilized in the case study. The research emphasizes the importance of proper and accurate estimation of the occurrence probability of interrelated factors. The results show that, overall, the CR of the Strait of Hormuz is relatively higher than the other two straits. The results demonstrate geographical variance across maritime nodes in terms of CR.
(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.
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Shuang Wang, Yan Wang, and Hui Ye "Connectivity reliability assessment for maritime nodes: a novel D-vine copula-based approach", Proc. SPIE 13421, Eighth International Conference on Traffic Engineering and Transportation System (ICTETS 2024), 134211S (20 December 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3054711
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KEYWORDS
Wind speed
Reliability
Transportation
Engineering
Modeling
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