Reentry survivability modeling

Michael L. Fudge; Robert L. Maher

doi:10.1117/12.293341

1 October 1997 Reentry survivability modeling

Michael L. Fudge, Robert L. Maher

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 3116, Small Spacecraft, Space Environments, and Instrumentation Technologies; (1997) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.293341
Event: Optical Science, Engineering and Instrumentation '97, 1997, San Diego, CA, United States

Abstract

Statistical methods for expressing the impact risk posed to space systems in general [and the International Space Station (ISS) in particular] by other resident space objects have been examined. One of the findings of this investigation is that there are legitimate physical modeling reasons for the common statistical expression of the collision risk. A combination of statistical methods and physical modeling is also used to express the impact risk posed by re-entering space systems to objects of interest (e.g., people and property) on Earth. One of the largest uncertainties in the expressing of this risk is the estimation of survivable material which survives reentry to impact Earth's surface. This point was recently demonstrated in dramatic fashion by the impact of an intact expendable launch vehicle (ELV) upper stage near a private residence in the continental United States. Since approximately half of the missions supporting ISS will utilize ELVs, it is appropriate to examine the methods used to estimate the amount and physical characteristics of ELV debris surviving reentry to impact Earth's surface. This paper examines reentry survivability estimation methodology, including the specific methodology used by Caiman Sciences' 'Survive' model. Comparison between empirical results (observations of objects which have been recovered on Earth after surviving reentry) and Survive estimates are presented for selected upper stage or spacecraft components and a Delta launch vehicle second stage.

Citation Download Citation

Michael L. Fudge and Robert L. Maher "Reentry survivability modeling", Proc. SPIE 3116, Small Spacecraft, Space Environments, and Instrumentation Technologies, (1 October 1997); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.293341

ACCESS THE FULL ARTICLE

INSTITUTIONAL
Select your institution to access the SPIE Digital Library.

SELECT YOUR INSTITUTION

PERSONAL
Sign in with your SPIE account to access your personal subscriptions or to use specific features such as save to my library, sign up for alerts, save searches, etc.

PERSONAL SIGN IN

No SPIE Account? Create one

;

PURCHASE THIS CONTENT

SUBSCRIBE TO DIGITAL LIBRARY

50 downloads per 1-year subscription

Members: $195

Non-members: $335 ADD TO CART

25 downloads per 1 - year subscription

Members: $145

Non-members: $250 ADD TO CART

PURCHASE SINGLE ARTICLE

Includes PDF, HTML & Video, when available

Members: $17.00

Non-members: $21.00 ADD TO CART

PROCEEDINGS
8 PAGES

DOWNLOAD PAPER SAVE TO MY LIBRARY

GET CITATION

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Get copyright permission Get copyright permission on Copyright Marketplace

KEYWORDS

Optical spheres

Aluminum

Copper

Radon

Atmospheric modeling

Statistical modeling

Systems modeling

Show All Keywords

Keywords/Phrases

Search In:

Publication Years