The purpose of this article is to introduce the reader with the world of fiber optic media with its challenges and solutions, and also to present the Probable analysis method for conductive leak localization (PAMCLL) and to show how it works on fiber optic cable with armored sheath (FOCAS). One of the such challenges, considered in this article, for Russian fiber-optic links exploiting services is how to seek the 'ill- fated leak' (from the point of copper wire cylindroid, wrapped up with damaged polyethylene hose, into the ground) on buried long-haul FOCAS. It was PAMCLL that was selected to eliminate some typical problems occurring in process of localization. In abstract sense, PAMCLL is probable model describing the distribution of leak locations depending on the index of insulation of fantom pair, since the fault location is random variable.
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