Time delay error is a significant error source in adaptive optics (AO) systems. It arises from the latency between sensing the wavefront and applying the correction. Predictive control algorithms reduce the time delay error, providing significant performance gains, especially for high-contrast imaging. However, the predictive controller’s performance depends on factors such as the wavefront sensor (WFS) type, the measurement noise level, the AO system’s geometry, and the atmospheric conditions. We study the limits of prediction under different imaging conditions through spatiotemporal Gaussian process models. The method provides a predictive reconstructor that is optimal in the least-squares sense, conditioned on the fixed times series of WFS data and our knowledge of the atmospheric conditions. We demonstrate that knowledge is power in predictive AO control. With a Shack–Hartmann sensor-based extreme AO instrument, perfect knowledge of the wind and atmospheric profile and exact frozen flow evolution lead to a reduction of the residual wavefront phase variance up to a factor of 3.5 compared with a non-predictive approach. If there is uncertainty in the profile or evolution models, the gain is more modest. Still, assuming that only effective wind speed is available (without direction) led to reductions in variance by a factor of |
Wavefront sensors
Adaptive optics
Turbulence
Data modeling
Process modeling
Covariance matrices
Atmospheric modeling