On the base of numerical experiments with the general circulation climatic model MIROC-ESM and climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM it was shown that the sign of the time lag between changes in global temperature T and atmospheric carbon dioxide content qCO2 depends on the type and the time scale of the external forcing applied to the Earth system. In particular, modern climate models are able to reproduce the qCO2 lagging behind T under conditions that are valid for the pre-industrial Holocene, so it does not contradict the idea of the importance of anthropogenic contribution to modern climate change.
Current estimates of methane emissions from high-latitude wetland ecosystems have significant inter-model variation, one of the reasons for which may be the internal variability of atmospheric circulation. This paper analyzes the effects of internal atmospheric variability on variations in methane emissions from Western Siberia. For average annual emission values, the uncertainty rate associated with climatic noise was 10%, and for individual months, 7–35%.
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