Land is an indispensable natural resource for human, without which we cannot survive and develop. Land-use
change, influenced by both natural environment and human activity, has a close relationship with food security, resource
utilization, biodiversity and climate change. In order to understand the process and driving mechanism of land-use
change, dynamic models were developed in these years, among which Dinamica EGO is a practical one and has been
widely used in the world. In this paper, we aim to use Dinamica EGO to simulate the land-use of China in 2005 with data
extracted from SPOT VGT NDVI. The real land-use map was compared with the simulation result so as to verify the
feasibility of Dinamica EGO. Then we supposed three sceneries under which we could analyze the land-use change of
China in 2020. Results indicated that: on the basis of no extreme natural disasters or exceptional policy fluctuation, the
grassland area would reduce by 22.21 million hectares averagely. However forest would increase by 19.81 billion
hectares on average. Water and unused land would probably remain stable as there was little change in three sceneries.
Farmland areas showed a good agreement under these sceneries whereas the greatest difference in land-use area
estimations lies in built-up with an uncertainty accounting for 1.67%.
Shanghai is a metropolis with the fastest growing economy and the largest economic aggregate in China. In
this paper, some change detection methods were used for assessment of urbanization and ecosystem changes. The
urbanization area index (UAI) which is derived from land cover is used to reflect the speed of urban expansion, while the
fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) which is retrieved from NDVI is used to represent the status of urban ecosystem. The
NDVI time series were derived from MOD13Q1 by using an annual stacking approach. Land cover maps were retrieved
from annual NDVI time series from 2000 to 2009. This paper focused on assessment study of urbanization level and
ecosystem changes in Shanghai municipality. Results indicated following: 1) the urban area of Shanghai increased
continuously in the past 10 years; 2) the UAI increased by an annual average rate more than 1.84%, its peak value was
4.36% during 2008-2009; 3) the urbanization degree of Shanghai ran on a high speed in the past decade; 4) on the whole,
FVC decreased continuously over the past decade, while the FVC of urban area increased slightly and the FVC of some
islands and outer suburbs increased slightly too; 5) the urban ecosystem of Shanghai became more and more "green" but
at the cost of decreased cropland and natural vegetation cover. The assessment of urbanization and ecosystem changes
suggests that suburban ecosystem protection is an import and urgent problem for government to implement more
effective environmental management policies.
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