Long-term forecast of the lower cloudiness on the basis of the three-dimensional dynamic stochastic model

A. V. Lavrinenko; S. N. Ilyin; N. Ya. Lomakina

doi:10.1117/12.2502029

13 December 2018 Long-term forecast of the lower cloudiness on the basis of the three-dimensional dynamic stochastic model

A. V. Lavrinenko, S. N. Ilyin, N. Ya. Lomakina

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Proceedings Volume 10833, 24th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics; 108336Z (2018) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2502029
Event: XXIV International Symposium, Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics, 2018, Tomsk, Russian Federation

Abstract

The work presents the method of forecasting the amount of lower cloudiness with an advance time of one year based on the integration of the methods for ultra-long-term dynamic-stochastic forecasting of air temperature fields in the atmospheric boundary layer and the method for joint forecasting of meteorological fields for cases of related processes. Fields of air temperature and the amount of lower stratified cloudiness were considered as dependent fields. A statistical analysis of the forecasting quality of the lower stratiform cloudiness amount with an advance time of one year in the atmospheric boundary layer (up to 2000 m) is based on 47-years (from 1969 to 2015) 2-term observations of temperature and 8-time observations of the cloudiness of 6 upper-air stations in the Arctic regions of Siberia. It is shown that the mean square errors of the forecast do not exceed 3.0 balls, and the relative error of the forecast is in the range of 50−65% at all stations in the Arctic region of Siberia and at all heights of the atmospheric boundary layer, as well as in all seasons.

Citation Download Citation

A. V. Lavrinenko, S. N. Ilyin, and N. Ya. Lomakina "Long-term forecast of the lower cloudiness on the basis of the three-dimensional dynamic stochastic model", Proc. SPIE 10833, 24th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 108336Z (13 December 2018); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2502029

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