Dynamic risk assessment and early warning technology for oil terminal based on catastrophe theory

Linlin Lu; Jing Zhou; Lecai Liang; Yanhua Hu

doi:10.1117/12.2613905

10 November 2021 Dynamic risk assessment and early warning technology for oil terminal based on catastrophe theory

Linlin Lu, Jing Zhou, Lecai Liang, Yanhua Hu

Proceedings Volume 12050, International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering 2021; 1205054 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2613905
Event: 2021 International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering, 2021, Chongqing, China

Abstract

Dynamic risk assessment and early warning was one of the important means to ensure the security of oil terminals. This paper proposed a dynamic risk assessment and early warning model based on catastrophe theory, firstly established a risk evaluation index system for oil terminals. Then it divided the indicators into three categories based on the impact on the results, namely positive indicators, negative indicators and moderate indicators. According to these indicators, the nondimensional processing formula of each category was determined. In combination with catastrophe theory, the target index mutation membership function value was obtained based on a recursive calculation. Finally, the evaluation level of the target index was carried out. Sample data was used to verify the proposed model, and the results prove that the model could realize dynamic risk assessment and early warning.

Citation Download Citation

Linlin Lu, Jing Zhou, Lecai Liang, and Yanhua Hu "Dynamic risk assessment and early warning technology for oil terminal based on catastrophe theory", Proc. SPIE 12050, International Conference on Smart Transportation and City Engineering 2021, 1205054 (10 November 2021); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2613905

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