A study on modified SEIR model considering quarantine status and the prediction of material demand during epidemics

Linxiao Dong; Mingang Gao

doi:10.1117/12.2686147

28 July 2023 A study on modified SEIR model considering quarantine status and the prediction of material demand during epidemics

Linxiao Dong, Mingang Gao

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 12756, 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023); 127563D (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2686147
Event: 2023 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023), 2023, Tangshan, China

Abstract

The SEIR model is a classical model that describes the dynamic changes in the number of different groups of people under an epidemic. This paper modifies the classical SEIR model and adds corresponding rooms based on the consideration of people under centralized and home quarantine states, which realizes the separate prediction of the number of people in different infection states and different quarantine states under the epidemic situation. In addition, we have also established the mathematical relationship between the above-predicted number of people and the demand for emergency materials, therefore, providing support for the government to react more effectively and make better distribution of emergency supplies when facing epidemics. This paper uses data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China in 2020 to verify the effectiveness of the model.

Citation Download Citation

Linxiao Dong and Mingang Gao "A study on modified SEIR model considering quarantine status and the prediction of material demand during epidemics", Proc. SPIE 12756, 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023), 127563D (28 July 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2686147

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