Paper
30 April 2024 Research on the production and correction of forecasted FY-4 infrared cloud image and the correction of forecasted short-term precipitation in the far sea areas
Author Affiliations +
Proceedings Volume 13157, Sixth Conference on Frontiers in Optical Imaging and Technology: Applications of Imaging Technologies; 131570X (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3017934
Event: Sixth Conference on Frontiers in Optical Imaging Technology and Applications (FOI2023), 2023, Nanjing, JS, China
Abstract
With the development of society, economy, and military, the demand for very short-term precipitation forecasting in far sea areas is becoming increasingly strong. In response to the low accuracy of precipitation forecasting, a correction method integrating FY-4 infrared cloud images for precipitation forecasting in the future 0~4 hour was proposed for the areas without weather radar such as the far sea. Firstly, based on the high-resolution prediction product from the numerical weather model WRF and the radiation transfer model RTTOV, the FY-4 infrared (10.3~11.3μm) forecast cloud image (bright temperature) was made by forward modeling method; Secondly, compared with the FY-4 observation cloud images, the evolution information of prediction errors of brightness temperature in the past -2~0 hours was obtained by using optical flow method. Next, three different schemes were proposed to apply the error evolution information of the predicted brightness temperature in the past -2~0 hours to correct the predicted brightness temperature in the future 0~4 hours; Finally, on the basis of brightness temperature correction with good results, three different correction schemes of forecast precipitation were proposed and analyzed. The results show that: 1) the average values of the root mean square error, average absolute error, and correlation coefficient of the predicted brightness temperature within 24 hours are 23.7K, 15.8K, and 0.45, respectively, showing a significant correlation between the predicted and observed brightness temperature; 2) after the correction, the average root mean square error of the predicted brightness temperature in the future 0~4 hours decreased by 5.4K, the average absolute error decreased by 3.4K, and the average correlation coefficient increased by 0.19; 3) after the correction, the TS score of predicted precipitation in the future 0~4 hours has significantly improved too. The research results will not only provide high-quality infrared forecast cloud images, but also improve the accuracy of very short-term precipitation forecasting in the far sea areas, and provide reference for improving the accuracy of precipitation forecasting in other regions such as the plateau and western regions of China.
(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.
Xiaokang Shi, Yanbing Hu, Sen Li, Yuqi Wang, and Hongliang Du "Research on the production and correction of forecasted FY-4 infrared cloud image and the correction of forecasted short-term precipitation in the far sea areas", Proc. SPIE 13157, Sixth Conference on Frontiers in Optical Imaging and Technology: Applications of Imaging Technologies, 131570X (30 April 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3017934
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KEYWORDS
Clouds

Optical flow

Infrared imaging

Rain

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