KEYWORDS: Solar radiation, Data modeling, Solar energy, Solar radiation models, Statistical analysis, Error analysis, Renewable energy, Computer engineering
This paper discusses the probability distribution functions (PDF) of monthly insolation for four locations in Libya based on analysis of 30 years of historical weather data calculated by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in order to get appropriate probability distribution that best fits the data for a given month of the year. The frequency distributions used for solar irradiation data include Weibull, Normal, Lognormal and Gamma. The observed radiation at four locations in Libya on a monthly basis are analyzed to evaluate the suitability of the probability distribution functions based on the mean square errors. The analysis showed all the probability functions are appropriate for all the locations where weather conditions are relatively steady throughout the year. From the analysis it is concluded that Normal and Weibull distributions gives the best fit for observed solar radiation.
KEYWORDS: Wind energy, Solar energy, Renewable energy, Solar cells, Thermal modeling, Wind turbine technology, Energy transfer, Data modeling, Control systems, Systems modeling
Renewable energy resources are steadily being important options in the microgrids power systems, energy storage technology become required to manage intermittent of power supply, battery storage can be use in small scale to support the power need, but the cost and lifetime of the battery one of the challenges in utilizing battery storage system in the microgrids. Also, the thermal storage system become desirable due to ability to hold greatly variable quantities of energy at the unchanged temperature. This paper studies a microgrid which supplies solar and wind energy to a single building with both electric load and thermal load. The aim is to investigate the potential benefit of using lower-cost thermal storage to assist in managing renewable power fluctuations, which is appropriate when significant thermal loads are present. Hourly electrical consumption and demand hot water profiles are developed from historical meter data. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has been used to dispatch the power between microgrid component. Renewable energy penetration and renewable energy curtailment are the performance measured. Modeling results indicate that storage balance among battery and thermal storage increasing renewable penetration by 15% and decrease renewable curtailment by 30%.
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