The interannual variability of the World Ocean mean level, according to altimeter data was 3.35 ± 0.4 mm/year at a 90% confidence interval, and the trend acceleration was 0.12 ± 0.07 mm/year2 for 1993-2018. Regional variability tends to be lower. The linear trend, based on altimetry data, was 3.15 mm/year for the Black Sea during the same period. Simultaneously, based on coastal tide gauge data, the linear trend is much lower than 1.6÷2.2 mm/year. The contribution of freshwater balance variability is roughly the same for both types of data; the difference lies in the additional contribution of the dynamic level, which is recognized by altimetry in more extent than by tidal gauge observations. The work focuses on the impact of dynamic processes of different spatial scales on the interannual variability of the Black Sea level. The influence of mesoscale processes was treated as dynamic noise and was removed by spatial filtering of sea level data. As a result, estimates of linear trends and acceleration of trends (quadratic trend coefficient) and errors of their determination for 95% confidence interval are obtained. Comparison of annual sea level anomalies after filtration with coastal observations clarifies the interannual variability of the Black Sea level.
The interannual variability of the Arctic Ocean level is largely determined by the wind impact, which is modulated by the Arctic Oscillation. This paper is the first to study the long-term variability of the ocean level depending on the phase of the Arctic Oscillation for 1950-2012. It is shown that the ocean circulation regimes are mainly represented by two types: cyclonic during the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation and anticyclonic during the negative phase. The maximum manifestations of these phenomena intensified after 2000. The positive values of the linear trend coefficients of the level reached 4-5 mm / year and are localized in the area of the Beaufort Gyre. This region corresponds to the values of 70-75% of the contribution of the low-frequency signal variability to the variance of the sea level. In the East Siberian Sea, the estimates of the linear trend of the level also reach 4-5 mm / year, which is due to an increase in the runoff of the Siberian rivers. However, the nature of the processes in this area is intraseasonal, because it corresponds to 30-40% of the contribution of low-frequency signal variability to sea level dispersion.
KEYWORDS: Climatology, Temperature metrology, Atmospheric physics, Atmospheric modeling, Climate change, Gases, Data analysis, Brain mapping, Composites, Control systems
The interannual variability of the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Arctic region, including the Barents Sea, is studied on based of use ERA-Interim re-analysis data for the period 1979-2017. The mean SAT map, root-mean-square values and coefficients of linear trend maps are constructed. The obtained estimates are compared with observational data, and with the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes. The relationship between the different types of the atmospheric circulation over the region and the spatial distribution of surface air temperature on seasonal and interannual scales is analyzed. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to study the physical patterns of intensive atmospheric circulation development over the Arctic, the trends of their inter-annual variability, and the relationships with surface air temperature anomalies on the long-term scales.
The interannual variability of the types of synoptic situations is investigated. The re-analysis sea surface atmospheric pressure is analyzed for 1979-2017 for the Azov-Black Sea region with the aim to recognize the variability of the surface atmosphere dynamics. The results of surface atmospheric pressure typing are presented in the form of Kohonen self-organizing maps, and the percentage of time recurrence of the selected structures is given. The relationship between the features of the atmospheric circulation over the region and the intensity of sea level fluctuations on seasonal and interannual scales are analyzed. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to study the physical patterns of development of various types of intensive atmospheric circulation over the Azov-Black Sea basin, their features of inter-annual variability, and the relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation on a multi-year scale. The results are used to establish the influence of atmospheric circulation on the repeatability of the storm surges in the Azov-Black Sea region on the seasonal and interannual scales.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the interannual variability of the Black Sea suspended matter concentrations based on satellite data. The spatial and temporal variability of the bio-optical parameters are investigated by satellite data analysis. To analyze the interannual variability of suspended matter concentration on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea, the combined monthly fields of the backscatter factor (BBP) for the period 1998-2010, obtained from the data of the SeaWiFS scanners, MODIS, MERIS are presented in a uniform spatial resolution grid of 4.6 km. empiric orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to these data arrays with the aim to classify the spatial variability of BBP signal. As a result, the characteristics of the interannual spatial-temporal variability of the suspended matter concentration are given by four Empiric orthogonal function maps. They describe around 52% of summary suspended matter variance on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea and thus its define the main regions (sources) of matter input. The influence of the Danube water inflow and suspended matters transport on the northwestern part of the Black Sea are discussed. The relationship between interannual variability of the suspended matter concentrations and large-scale atmospheric circulation processes was compared via North Atlantic Oscillation index.
This paper uses an original approach for the typification of synoptic situations from re-analysis data over a long period of time. This approach includes the typification of surface atmospheric pressure and surface wind velocity fields over the Azov-Black Sea basin. The results of typification (structures) of surface atmospheric pressure and surface velocity are presented in the form of Kohonen self-organizing maps (SOM), and the percentage of time recurrence of the allocated structures is given. The relevance of the study is due to the need to study the physical patterns of development of various types of intense atmospheric circulation over the Azov-Black Sea basin and their relationship with the largescale atmospheric circulation on multi-annual scales.
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