We have established a DWT-based secondary self-regression model (AR(2)) to forecast stock value. This method requires the user to decide upon the trend of the stock prices. We later used WNN to forecast stock prices which does not require the user to decide upon the trend. When comparing these two methods, we could see that AR(2) does not perform as well if there are no trends for the stock prices. On the other hand, WNN would not be influenced by the presence of trends.
The stock price prediction by the wavelet neural network is about minimizing RMSE by adjusting the parameters of initial values of network, training data percentage, and the threshold value in order to predict the fluctuation of stock price in two weeks. The objective of this dissertation is to reduce the number of parameters to be adjusted for achieving the minimization of RMSE. There are three kinds of parameters of initial value of network: w , t , and d . The optimization of these three parameters will be conducted by the Particle Swarm Optimization method, and comparison will be made with the performance of original program, proving that RMSE can be even less than the one before the optimization. It has also been shown in this dissertation that there is no need for adjusting training data percentage and threshold value for 68% of the stocks when the training data percentage is set at 10% and the threshold value is set at 0.01.
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